In a recent blog post, we examined the demographic shift in states and counties whereby seniors have overtaken children residing in those areas. While no county within the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) 11-county region has crossed that threshold yet, the balance between young and old is shifting noticeably. Let’s take a closer look.
Figure 1 below uses the latest (Vintage 2024) Census Bureau’s County Population Estimates to depict the ratio between the number of children and the number of seniors in each county. The reference line is the ratio for the 11-county ARC region as a whole.
Figure 1: Number of Children (i.e. Under 18) per Senior (i.e. 65+) by County, 2024
Figure 1 above shows that two counties– Clayton and Gwinnett– have more than two children per senior. Interestingly, Clayton is the only county in our region where the population shrank between 2023 and 2024, while Gwinnett is the county with the largest absolute population growth.[1] At the “other end of the spectrum”, the numbers of children and seniors in Fayette County are near parity.
What’s changed since 1980? Figure 2 (that follows) adds data from that year’s Decennial Census to compare the ratio over time for the counties in our region. The bars are sorted according to the 1980 values.
Figure 2: Number of Children (i.e. Under 18) per Senior (i.e. 65+) by County, 1980-2024
As can be seen in Figure 2 above, all counties have much lower child to senior ratios today than they did in 1980. And generally, counties that had a higher proportion of children in 1980 tend also to have a higher proportion today. Fayette County is a notable exception: it had the third highest number of children per senior ratio in 1980 but now (2024) has the fewest children per senior.
Want to explore further? We can’t present all time points for all counties in a graph, at least not legibly. This visualization allows you to choose which counties and time points to compare, and includes all counties statewide:
Notes:
[1] For more in-depth discussion about population changes between 2023 and 2024, see https://33n.atlantaregional.com/population/growth-in-focus-unpacking-atlantas-population-shifts.
Download the data utilized in the visualization here.