We’re getting older as a nation. In fact, the median age in the United States has increased steadily from 30.0 in 1980 to 39.1 in 2024. [1] The shift is striking: a recent Census press release reported that seniors outnumber children in eleven states[2]– up from just three in 2020[3]– and nearly half of U.S. counties. What does the trend look like here in Georgia? How has the balance between older adults and children shifted over time? And what could this mean for our future?
To answer the first question, we turn to the most recent release (Vintage 2024) of the Census Bureau’s County Population Estimates, specifically the Population Estimates by Selected Age Groups and Sex file. Figure 1 below highlights the 47 (29.6%) of Georgia’s 159 counties where seniors outnumber children; the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) 11-county region boundary is provided in blue for reference.
Figure 1: Georgia Counties where Seniors Outnumber Children
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by Selected Age Groups and Sex, 2024 Vintage
As Figure 1 above shows, children continue to outnumber seniors in all counties within the 11-County ARC region. Seniors outnumber children in three outlying[4] counties within the Atlanta MSA: Pickens and Lumpkin County to the north and Meriwether County in the southwest. The main clusters of Georgia counties where seniors outnumber children are found in the north Georgia mountains as well as in a band stretching northeast from Seminole and Clay Counties (in Southwest and West Georgia) through South Georgia and Middle Georgia and into Wilkes and Lincoln Counties in East Georgia.
How has this relationship changed over time? One way to explore this is as the ratio of children to seniors, data available from each decennial Census as well as the most recent population estimates. Figure 2 below compares this over time for the United States as a whole, Georgia, and the 11-county ARC region.
Figure 2: Number of children per Senior, 1980-2024
This chart (Figure 2 above) reveals that, as the birth rate has declined and life expectancy has increased, the ratio of children to senior in the United States has gone from 2.5 children per senior in 1980 to just 1.2 by 2024. Georgia and the 11-county ARC region still (in 2024) have more children per senior (1.4 and 1.7 respectively) than does the nation as a whole, but the gap has narrowed significantly since 1970 when the state had 3.2 children per senior and the 11-county ARC region had 3.9.
The policy implications abound and include increased demand for elder care, reduced school enrollments, shifts in the types of housing needed, and potential labor gaps in some industries– just to name a few.
How do Atlanta counties compare to each other and the region as a whole? We’ll take a look in an upcoming blog post.
Notes:
[1] Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Census of Population, 1980, General Population Characteristics, United States Summary, Table 64 and County Population Estimates, specifically the Population Estimates by Selected Age Groups and Sex file, 2024 Vintage.
[2] Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and West Virginia are the states where seniors outnumber children.
[3] Florida, Maine and Vermont are the states where seniors outnumbered children in 2020.
[4] An outlying county is one that has a “high degree of social and economic integration with the core” (at least 25% of its residents work in the core counties or at least 25% of its jobs are filled by residents of the core counties) but where the majority of its population resides in non-urban areas. For more information about metropolitan and micropolitan areas, see https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/metro-micro/about/glossary.html.
Download the data file used in this blog post here: Seniors and Children