In a recent blog post, we reported that the population for the Atlanta MSA grew by an estimated 75,134 (1.2%) between 2023 and 2024[1] according to Census Bureau estimates. We further explored how international migration was a key component to population growth in major metros nationwide. Let’s zoom in closer and see what is going on at the county level for the ARC region.
Figure 1 presents Census Bureau population estimates for the 11 counties in the ARC region as of July 2024:
Figure 1: Census Estimates of County Population for the 11-County ARC Region
As the above Figure 1 shows, the five core counties that made up the Atlanta MSA in 1970– Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, and Clayton– remain the largest counties in terms of population. But Clayton County is much smaller than the other four, and Cherokee and Forsyth Counties are not far behind Clayton County in terms of population.
How did population change over the course of the preceding year? Figure 2 displays estimates of population change from 2023-2024 for the 11 ARC counties. Counties are sorted in descending order by total population:
Figure 2: Census Estimates of County Population Change for the 11-County ARC Region
We see in the above Figure 2 that Gwinnett County was the big winner in terms of population growth, gaining almost twice as many people as Fulton, Cobb, or Cherokee Counties. Most other counties showed some growth, though Fayette and Rockdale each picked up fewer than 1,500 residents. Clayton County lost a bit more population than either Fayette or Rockdale gained.
The picture looks a bit different if we look at this same change in relative terms– percent change– as presented in Figure 3. Again, counties are sorted in descending order of total population. The reference line in this graph is the percentage growth for the ARC region as a whole, 0.9%.
Figure 3: Census Estimates of County Population in Percentage Terms for the 11-County ARC Region
In terms of percent change, Cherokee and Forsyth had the highest growth rate among our 11 counties. Though Fulton and Cobb put up impressive absolute figures, their growth is relatively small on a percentage basis. Comparing the bars to the reference line shows that among the five counties in the core, only Gwinnett grew faster than did the region as a whole. It’s also worth noting that with a 0.9% growth rate, the 18 counties located within the Atlanta MSA but outside the ARC region are growing at a greater pace than are the 11 counties within the ARC region.
What were the drivers of population change among our 11 counties? Figure 4 (that follows) breaks down the change into the components of births, deaths, net international migration (movement between a county and other countries), and net domestic migration (movement between a county and other parts of the USA).[2]
Figure 4: Census Estimates of County Population Change for the 11-County ARC Region by Change Component
Figure 3 above shows that natural growth was a net positive– i.e., births outnumbered deaths– in all counties except Fayette, where the numbers of births and deaths were roughly even (a net decline of just 76 people).
As was the case in other major metros, the big story is in migration, and in migration by type, All five core counties in the ARC Region experienced negative domestic migration, meaning that more people moved from these counties to other parts of the United States than moved in from other parts of the country. But these losses were more than offset by international migration in Cobb, Fulton, and Gwinnett. Domestic migration was net positive among all six counties outside the core. And international migration accounted for more population increase than either births or domestic migration in Forsyth and Gwinnett counties.
Notes:
[1] The Census Bureau produces estimates as of July 1 of each year, so this growth represents change for the period of July 1, 2023 through June 30, 2024.
[2] Population estimates also include a residual term– very small statistical adjustments to ensure that county numbers sum to statewide totals and that state numbers sum to the nationwide total.
Access the data used in the graphs for this blog post here: Population Change, ARC 11 Counties, 2024 Vintage
Photo: AJC: The Midtown Atlanta skyline at dawn on Monday, September 25, 2023. (John Spink / John.Spink@ajc.com)