Commuting (to Work)–Comparing Counties: 2021 and 2023

A recent blog post found that, after a respite linked to the increase in Work from Home (WFH) during the pandemic, commute times in Metro Atlanta are back on the rise. Which counties have the best and worst commutes? And which counties have seen the greatest rebounds in commuting times?

To answer these questions, we turn to the American Community Survey 1-year estimates, courtesy of the Census Bureau. Figure 1 shows the average commute times for the eleven counties of the ARC region.

As the chart above shows, the lowest average commute times are among the counties in the urban core: Fulton (28.2 minutes), DeKalb (29.9 minutes), and Cobb (30.1 minutes). The longest average commutes are among counties that have sometimes been characterized as “bedroom communities”: Henry (34.0 minutes), Douglas (34.7 minutes), and Rockdale (35.7 minutes).

Figure 2 takes a closer look at the relationship between commuting pattern and commute time

We see in Figure 2 above that there is a moderate relationship (r= .51) between the percentage of workers who work in their county of residence and the average commute time for workers residing in that same county. Rockdale, Douglas, and Clayton stand out as having the largest percentages of residents traveling outside the county for work, so it is not surprising that their workers would have the longest average commutes.

Which counties have seen the largest upticks in commute times since pandemic-related dip in 2021? Figure 3 below compares the average commute times for workers in the ARC Counties for 2021 and 2023.[1]

The line in this graph represents our prediction of what the average commute time in 2023 would be for any given value in 2021 (r=.66). As we see, Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb and Forsyth all saw smaller increases that we might have expected given their characteristics, while Fayette and Douglas saw somewhat larger increases in commute time than expected.

What might account for this variation? One possibility is that it is tied to commuting mode. Figure 4 below compares commuting modes by county for 2023.

This chart shows that Forsyth and Fulton counties, the two counties notable for their smaller than expected rebound in commute times are also the counties that have retained the largest percentages of work from home (28 and 26 percent respectively). On the other hand, Douglas County, which stood out as having a higher than expected rebound in commute times, has the highest percentage of workers who drove alone, at 77 percent. Fewer opportunities for working from home (or other alternative means of commuting such as public transportation) appear to yield greater commuter pain.

Notes:

[1] Eagle-eyed readers will notice that Rockdale County is missing from this scatterplot. The Census Bureau suppresses data tables in the 1-year data product when estimates fail to meet their publication standards (typically the function of small samples), so average commute length for Rockdale in 2021 is not available.