Migration has been on our minds lately.

After analyzing migration patterns for young adults in January’s snapshot using data from migrationpatterns.org, we followed that up with a series of follow-up posts (part 1, part 2, & part 3) from the same data source. Finally, we isolated Black young adult migration into and out of Atlanta in a final follow-up post.

We have continued our deep dive into the topic, but this time with a new data source: the Internal Revenue Service. From the IRS Statistics of Income website, these data “are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS.” As a result, this dataset tracks the movement of individuals and dollars (as measured by adjusted gross income, or AGI) across state and even county lines. We note that, below a certain threshold, the migration numbers between counties are anonymized for privacy concerns.

Using this dataset, we have created a web-based dashboard app that tracts the flows of people and AGI into and out of the 11-county Atlanta region, as well as each constituent county, between the years of 2015 and 2020.

The Caveats

The IRS migration dataset offers a few distinct advantages. Firstly, the dataset is geographically specific, in that it tracts flows of people and dollars into and out of specific counties, which can be aggregated up to the Atlanta 11-county metro region. Secondly, the data is updated annually, so migration analysis can be conducted on a year-over-year basis. Finally, this dataset allows us to track all ages and specific dollar amounts.

We note there are limitations to these data: the technique used by the IRS captures only those who file returns, so it misses a disproportionate number of seniors, the very low income, and new arrivals from different countries who have never filed a U.S. tax return before. Therefore, this analysis explores only domestic migration.

The Findings

  • The data show the top counties sending individuals to the Atlanta 11-county metro area between 2015 and 2020 (excluding migration between the 11) to be from the metro areas of Miami, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles, as shown below. This chart considers the net flow into metro Atlanta, which takes the total inflow from each county and subtracts the total outflow to that county.

  • The data show a total inflow into the 11-county metro area between 2015 and 2020 to be 1,914,946, but only a net inflow of 49,247 persons. Again, the net amount considers the flow in both directions.
  • In considering where Atlantans are moving, we analyze the inverse of the above chart to see net outflow. Again, we only consider movement outside the 11-county area, not movement within the 11-county area. Between 2015 and 2020, the data show a very clear pattern of movement to neighboring counties such as Paulding, Hall, and Walton counties as opposed to further-flung counties from major national metro areas:

  • We turn our attention to the flow of dollars, as measured here by total adjusted gross income (AGI) as reported on individual tax returns. From 2019 – 2020, the top county sending a (net) flow of dollars into the 11-county metro area came from New York County, NY, otherwise known by its more famous borough name: Manhattan.
    • A net inflow of $81.1 million in AGI came from Manhattan, while neighboring Brooklyn accounted for the second highest net inflow of AGI at $58.4 million over the same time frame. Rounding out the top 5 are Los Angeles County, CA ($46.7 million in AGI); Cook County, IL (encompassing Chicago – $45.3 million in AGI); and San Francisco County, CA ($35.0 million in AGI).
  • For the same time frame, the net outflow of dollars from the 11-county area traveled much shorter distances. The top recipient of adjusted gross income flowing out of the metro area was into nearby Hall County, GA, with a staggering net outflow of $155.3 million in AGI. Paulding County, GA, is second on the list at a net outflow of $78.0 million in AGI, while Walton County, GA, is third at a net outflow of $74.2 million in AGI.
  • From 2019 – 2020, the overall net flow of dollars into the 11-county metro area was a negative $639.7 million in AGI, meaning the AGI outflow was greater than the AGI inflow for this time period. This value was down from a negative net AGI outflow from 2018 – 2019 of $430.5 million, as shown in the chart below:

These data and dashboard highlight many additional conclusions based on the flow of people, dollars, and dollars per capita which are not specified here. Continue exploring the data using the link below!

The Dashboard

Click here to access the interactive dashboard. The side panel will allow a user to change input parameters such as the summary level (metro vs. county), variable visualized, inflow vs. outflow, and migration year range.

Note that data can be summarized for either the entire 11-county metro or for an individual county. The variable “Dollars per capita” simply takes the AGI and divides by the number of individuals.