In a recent post, we explored a national dataset published by Harvard University and the U.S. Census Bureau on young adult migration patterns across the country. The original dataset and study can be accessed at migrationpatterns.org.
Today’s post drills down on one aspect of the referenced snapshot. From the original dataset, we have selected 14 “peer cities” to which we compare the Atlanta commuter zone. These metro areas are: Austin, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Jacksonville, Los Angeles, Miami, Nashville, New Orleans, New York, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. For a baseline comparison, let’s take a look at how Atlanta’s overall net migration of young adults compares to these cities across all income and racial/ethnic categories.
Figure 1: Young adult net migration
This figure shows Atlanta’s overall net migration to be just over 45,000 young adults. The average net migration of all the metro areas shown is just under 33,000, a figure well below Atlanta’s net migration total. Only Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, and New Orleans saw negative young adult net migrations over the time period covered; New York and Austin lead the way with nearly 99,000 and over 83,000 young adults added, respectively. Atlanta’s migration total is on par with that of Dallas, Nashville, and San Francisco. However, the migration makeup between these four cities is quite different.
Consider that of Atlanta’s in-flow of young adults, nearly 80% were Black, while Dallas and Nashville saw relatively modest gains in Black young adults of only 26% and 16%, respectively. And black young adult migration in San Francisco was negative. When considering migration across young adults who are white, we see that in-flows to Atlanta accounted for only 5% of the overall positive migration to the area (or just over 2,000 persons), while white migration accounted for 54%, 75%, and 83% of the migration in-flows to Dallas, Nashville, and San Francisco respectively.
The table below shows net migration for Atlanta and all 14 peer cities by racial/ethnic category and across all income categories. Note the green-yellow-red formatting of the table, indicating overall large positive net migration (green), overall small migration (yellow), and overall large negative net migration (red).
Figure 2: Young adult net migration by racial/ethnic category (across all income ranges)
As shown by these data (and as noted in other research findings, such this article by the Brookings Institute), Atlanta’s young adult migration patterns are predominantly driven by Black young adults. And while Atlanta’s migration of white young adults is positive, it lags far behind that of other peer metro areas like Austin, Charlotte, Dallas, Los Angeles, Nashville, New York, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.