Previously, we explored the demographics of Home Health and Personal Care Assistant (PCA) workers in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector (NAICS 62). We found that this PCA occupation has workers that tend to be older than average. We also discovered that current employment projections suggest that more PCA workers will leave the occupation in the next 10 years through retirement, rather than by transferring into different occupations. What other occupations will see a large number of workers retiring in the next 10 years?

Figure 1: Occupations with Highest Shares of 55+ Workers (Source: JobsEQ, ARC RAD)

SOC Code Occupation Total Employment Percent 55 years and over
43-6012 Legal Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 1,915 51.6%
53-3051 Bus Drivers, School 7,483 51.1%
33-9091 Crossing Guards and Flaggers 1,250 50.5%
11-9013 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 2,811 50.3%
33-9094 School Bus Monitors 1,093 48.0%
27-3092 Court Reporters and Simultaneous Captioners 539 47.2%
33-3011 Bailiffs 510 45.7%
53-3053 Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs 3,258 45.2%
11-3013 Facilities Managers 1,881 42.4%
29-1041 Optometrists 804 42.3%

Figure 1 takes a look at the demographics in the labor market research software JobsEQ, and reveals that the occupations with the greatest proportion of their workforce age 55 years and over are varied both in type in total employment size. Some of the identified occupations only employ 510 workers in the Atlanta MSA! So, we need look at the number of workers 55 years and over in each occupation instead.

Figure 2: Occupations with Highest Numbers of Workers 55+ (Source: JobsEQ, ARC RAD)

SOC Code Occupation Total Employment Percent 55 years and over Number 55 years and over Exits Transfers
41-2031 Retail Salespersons 80,392 24.6% 19,776 54,623 65,382
43-9061 Office Clerks, General 49,727 25.5% 12,664 29,023 28,539
53-3032 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 47,624 26.3% 12,528 23,102 30,289
43-6014 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 39,873 31.1% 12,396 21,883 19,997
43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 30,904 35.5% 10,977 19,539 15,331
13-1199 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 47,531 21.2% 10,075 16,039 25,273
11-9199 Managers, All Other 36,721 26.0% 9,559 11,822 16,017
37-2011 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 32,573 28.7% 9,343 24,425 24,425
41-4012 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 33,678 27.3% 9,196 10,066 16,777
13-2011 Accountants and Auditors 35,164 25.7% 9,038 10,552 15,317

Figure 2 was produced by extracting occupations with more than the overall average of 20.8% of their workforce age 55+, then ranking them by the number of workers 55 years and over.

A closer look reveals that for many of these occupations, more workers will leave the occupation in the next 10 years by transferring into different occupations (labeled “Transfers”) than by exiting the labor force through retirement (labeled “Exits”).1

If we filtered out those occupations, the following table would result:

Figure 3: Occupations with Largest Numbers of Pending Retirements (“Exits”) (Source: JobsEQ, ARC RAD)

SOC Code Occupation Total Employment Percent 55 years and over Number 55 years and over Exits Transfers
43-9061 Office Clerks, General 49,727 25.5% 12,664 29,023 28,539
43-6014 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 39,873 31.1% 12,396 21,883 19,997
43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 30,904 35.5% 10,977 19,539 15,331
31-1122 Personal Care Aides 24,725 30.9% 7,635 20,977 18,426
23-1011 Lawyers 17,711 27.1% 4,804 4,224 2,755
41-9022 Real Estate Sales Agents 11,595 34.6% 4,010 5,526 4,233
37-2012 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 14,980 26.5% 3,965 12,336 11,169
53-3051 Bus Drivers, School 7,483 51.1% 3,823 8,726 3,787
11-9141 Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers 9,727 32.0% 3,116 4,114 3,330
29-2061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 12,155 23.7% 2,880 5,354 4,571

One could argue that quite a few of these occupations listed above in Figure 3 (e.g. Office clerks, Secretaries. and bookkeepers) will start to phase out as distinct categories in favor of automation and/or AI in the coming decades. But personal care aides, bus drivers, and licensed practical nurses are far less likely to see such demand drops; the high level of older worker retirements there are as such of much greater concern, and will require ongoing focus from workforce programs and policy.

Source: JobsEQ, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA, 2024Q1

(1) Note: The terms “Transfers” and “Exits” are native to JobsEQ and correspond to the terms “Occupational Transfers” and “Labor Force Exits” (respectively) as defined by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). According to the BLS: “Occupational transfers are the projected number of workers leaving an occupation and transferring to a different occupation. Transfers represent permanent separations from an occupation, not temporary movements where the worker is expected to return to the same occupation in the future […] Labor force exits are the projected number of workers leaving an occupation and exiting the labor force entirely. Labor force exits are more common at older ages as workers retire, but can occur at any age. Labor force exits are not necessarily permanent exits from the labor force; for example, some workers exit the labor force to pursue additional education with the intention of returning to the labor force. They do represent permanent separations from an occupation.”