In previous 33n blog posts by my colleague Moshe Haspel, we used the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) data to identify economic sectors with larger than average percentages of workers age 55 and older. These sectors included:

Figure 1: Two-Digit NAICS Industry Sectors with Above-Average Shares of Workers Aged 55+ (Source: QWI)

For every economic sector there is a corresponding “NAICS” code. Pronounced “nakes”, and an abbreviation of North American Industry Classification System, this code is used by Federal statistical agencies to classify and count business establishments.

In an earlier post, we asked: are we likely to see a wave of retirements among Home Health and PCA workers in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector (NAICS 62) just as the demand peaks? We wanted to answer this question using Quarterly Workforce Indicators but couldn’t because QWI data only uses only NAICS codes. Data categorized by NAICS codes can tell us a lot about economic sectors and industries as a whole, but cannot answer questions about workers’ occupations within those industries.

Home Health and Personal Care Aides (PCAs) are a specific occupation with their own code: a Standard Occupational Classification or SOC code. Like NAICS codes, SOC codes are used by federal agencies to classify and count workers by occupational categories. We can use a tool like JobsEQ, a labor market research software, to hone in on specific occupations. For example, the SOC code for Home Health and Personal Care Aides (PCAs) is 31-1120:

Figure 2: Worker Age Distribution for Home Health and Personal Care Aides, Atlanta MSA (Source: JobsEQ)

We can see in Figure 2 above that about 31.9% of Home Health and Personal Care Aides residing in the Atlanta MSA were 55 years or older. For some perspective, about 20.9% of all workers in all occupations in the metro region were 55 or older. Home Health workers and PCAs are indeed older in comparison!

Figure 3: Forecast Employment for Home Health and Personal Care Aides, Atlanta MSA (Source: JobsEQ)

Further analysis in JobsEQ shows that demand for Home Health and Personal Care Aides is forecasted to grow (see Figure 3 above)/ More workers will leave the occupation in the next 10 years through retirement (labeled “Exits” in the Figure 4 below) than by transferring into different occupations (labeled “Transfers”). That means we are in fact likely to see a wave of retirements among Home Health and PCA workers just as the demand peaks!

Figure 4: Total Demand by Type, Home Health and Personal Care Aides, Atlanta MSA (Source: JobsEQ)

These findings beg the question: What other occupations will see a large number of workers retiring? We’ll dig into that in our next and final 33n blog post in our series on the aging workforce!