This week’s Friday Factday explores the 10-year forecasted replacement demand for the twenty top occupations [as determined by location quotient (LQ)] for the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). These data are sourced from Chmura Economics and are part of their JobsEQ Occupational Snapshot. Replacement demand is a component of total occupational demand that comprises openings due to separations, including both turnover and retirements. Chmura’s forecasted replacement demand is derived from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) employment projections. More information on the BLS’ method for estimating occupational replacement needs can be found here.
The bar chart below displays the replacement share of total demand for the top twenty occupations by LQ for the Atlanta MSA. Location quotients are a measure of the concentration of a particular occupation or industry in a region as compared to the concentration of that sector in the nation as a whole. For more information on how LQs can be used to analyze occupational data, please see the following article from BLS. The occupations listed below have the highest LQs among occupational categories in the Atlanta MSA, and are therefore found in higher concentrations than in the nation as a whole.
Occupations below are sorted in descending order, from those having the highest replacement share of total demand to those with the lowest. For example, “Bill and Account Collectors” replacement share of total demand is 89.41%. For that occupation, it is estimated that there will be a total replacement demand over the next 10 years of 1,776 openings due to separations. However, growth demand in that occupation is more moderate, with only 216 openings forecasted over the next 10 years. Therefore, when compared to the forecasted total demand of 1,989, nearly 90% of those openings are due to replacement demand (and only just over 10% to growth demand).
Why is this important? Remember that replacement demand includes separations due to retirements, which leads us to an underlying factor shaping the region’s future workforce needs – the aging of our workforce. Not all occupations are impacted equally by this expected trend. In ARC’s forthcoming September Regional Snapshot, we’ll be digging deeper into this issue – aging of the workforce, as well as exploring the effects of automation on our occupational landscape.