ARC is in the thick of data, planning, and outreach work to update The Atlanta Region’s Plan by early next year (2024).  Last year (2022 that is), ARC began data development, processing, and modeling to update the demographic and socioeconomic forecasts that are a foundation of that broader update effort . We completed, with direct and essential assistance from a Technical Advisory Committee made up of local academic and industry experts, a new regional forecast (called Series 17) for our 21-county metropolitan planning organization (or MPO) area.

Highlights from the the latest ARC forecasts (again, Series 17) include:

  • The 21-county Atlanta region will be home to 7.9 million people by 2050, an increase of 1.8 million new residents above a 2020 baseline. This forecast series represents slower growth compared to last forecast series (Series 16).
  • The biggest reasons for the decline (in Series 17) in expected overall population growth? Declining fertility rates and declining in-migration– two trends that accelerated during the pandemic.
  • Today, roughly half of the Atlanta region’s growth is attributed to natural increase, i.e. births minus deaths, with the remainder coming from net in-migration. By 2050, only about 20 percent of the region’s growth will come from natural increase.
  • Practically all the population growth the region will receive in the next 30 years will come from increase in populations of color.
  • We as a region will also be a lot older than we are now. The only age cohorts forecast to grow in share of overall population are those 55 and older.
  • The Professional/Scientific/Technical Services sector will be the region’s largest industry by 2050. Technical occupations became even more important during the pandemic as we relied heavily on these technologies to power our lives during stay-at-home and social distancing measures, and we expect these trends to continue.

For graphic background on the highlights (and more), check out our Regional Forecast Snapshot (PDF)
or click on the slideshare below

What’s next? Well, short-term, you will see one or two more deep dives into aspects of the content of the snapshot. But in terms of the broader process, by this summer we will complete consultations with local planners and subsequent modeling to disaggregate these regional forecasts (to subcounty areas) to better inform transportation and land use project planning. Then, in early 2024, a new small-area set of population and employment figures–down to the census tract level–will be available as part of a newly adopted Region’s Plan.