Monday Mapday: Population Growth After the Recession-The Census Tract Story

Last Thursday, December 7th, the Census Bureau released an annual estimate series that we data nerds await with near-bated breath–almost like a little kid waiting for Santa (yes, really…yes, we know). Anyway, those data are the 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey. What makes them so useful is that they are reported at many geography levels, all the way down to the census tract and blockgroup.

That small area reporting allows us to look at trends between the 2007-2011 and 2012-2016 editions of the 5-year datasets–periods of particular interest as they respectively mark the “centerpoint” of the recessionary period (in the case of 2007-2011) and the “centerpoint” of the recovery from the recession (in the case of 2012-2016). The 10-county region’s population as a whole increased by 304,000 across the periods. Map 1 dives down to the tract level to show the absolute change between the 5-year periods. The pattern of growth is perhaps more balanced than might be expected. Though higher-growth tracts are more frequently located in the northern part of the region, very few areas south of I-20 (other than Clayton County) show declines. Fulton County and Gwinnett County led the ten counties in absolute increase; the only significant cluster of population loss in Fulton was in the southwest part of the City of Atlanta.

Map 1: Absolute Population Change at the Census Tract Level, from 2011* to 2016*: 10-County Area

* “2011” refers to the 2007-2011 5-year estimates; “2016” refers to the 2012-2016 5-year estimates.

Source: Census Bureau American Community Survey; mapping and analysis by ARC Research & Analytics

Map 2 shows the percentage changes between the two periods, at the census tract level. The region as a whole grew 7.4% , but some tracts nearly quadrupled–and a good number did decline. Clayton and southwest Atlanta again show clustering of tracts in decline. But very notable is the strong percentage growth in tracts adjacent to the Beltline, on both the east and western sides. There is also strong population increase in core job centers like Galleria in Cobb, Perimeter Center on the DeKalb/ Fulton border, and the North Point Mall area in northern Fulton County.

Want more information on the 2012-2016 5-year ACS? You know you do! Check out the map area of the Neighborhood Nexus website, where a curated selection of new data has been uploaded into interactive mapping tools. At the Nexus site, you will be able to explore data for a great many Census variables, NOT just population, with comparisons back to 2000 Census values.

Map 2: Percent Population Change at the Census Tract Level, from 2011* to 2016*: 10-County Area