In a recent post, we unveiled ARC’s regional forecasts for metropolitan Atlanta. This forecast provides a demographic and socioeconomic outlook for the 21-county metropolitan planning organization area. While you can reference the full findings in the earlier post, we will drill down on one aspect in this one.

The image below shows one slide from the previously published snapshot, which presents the racial/ethnic makeup of the region in 2020 in tandem with what distribution is forecast for these same categories in 2050:

The future composition of our metro area is changing! The Series 17 forecasts show the overall share of White and Black residents to be declining, although they will still represent the largest racial groups in the area by 2050. Meanwhile, Hispanic and Other Non-Hispanic populations (inclusive of Asian populations) are shown to be increasing their respective population shares over the next 30 years.

As we consider these forecasts, how do the figures shown compare to historical numbers? Do they represent a continuation of past trends, or a break from these trends? The chart below provides the helpful context of  decennial census numbers since 1990:

Reaching back 30 years, it becomes clear that the share of White metro population has been in steady and constant decline since 1990. From a height of nearly 70% in 1990, we project that by 2050 this White share will fall to just over a third. Black populations, meanwhile showed a steady growth of population share which peaked in or around 2010 at a high of 34.9% of metro population. The share of Black population has, and will continue, to decline from this number. Finally, Hispanic and Other Non-Hispanic populations have been steadily gaining in metro population share since 1990, showing that our 2050 projections for these groups constitute a continuation of historic trends for these groups.

One final note on the above findings: the timespan between the first four data points in each group is only 10 years (1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2010, and so on). However, the forecast period shown on the chart above is a 30-year leap into the future from 2020! Only time will tell if the decennial Census values for 2030 and 2040 support the anticipated trends. But the story should remain clear: the greater Atlanta metro area is quickly becoming an even more diverse home for those of Hispanic and other race/ethnic backgrounds.