There have been several articles and research papers written about the declining birth rate and the potential implications of such a decline. Here is a recent one from the N.Y Times, for example. Declining birth rates have all sorts of implications for the future, particularly how it affects population growth. Demography 101 holds that population growth in a distinct area occurs in two ways: Natural growth (births over deaths) and in-migration. In this post, we will only be looking at the birthrates in the 11-county Atlanta region. But don’t fret, we will surely be inundating you with other aspects of population growth later in August when the Census releases (finally!) its 2020 full-count results for cities, counties and neighborhoods.

Now, time to dig into the birth rate! We are using data from the Georgia Department of Public Health’s OASIS (DPH) platform, which looks at the number of live births per woman aged 10-55*. Chart 1 below shows that the birthrate has indeed declined by some 33 percent since 2000, from 47 births per woman aged 10-55 to 36 births per woman aged 10-55.

*The birth rate can be defined in many ways, with some opting to cut off the age at 44 and others opting to begin the age at 14, so DPH uses an expansive age cohort to determine the birth rate. It’s worth knowing that, in 2020, there were 31 births in the 11-county area to girls ages 10 to 14.

But as is usually the case, looking at just the headline numbers can mask underlying factors. The main driver of the declining birth rates is the dramatic decline in births to younger mothers, as seen in the next two charts.

In chart 2, we can see that the 11-county Atlanta region has experienced a 74 percent decline in births to teens since 2000. Reducing teen pregnancy and births has been a major policy focus over the past few decades, so this is something to celebrate.

Chart 3 (below) shows a 36 percent declining birth rate for women in their 20s. This significant (if less dramatic) drop in the birth rate supports the common narrative that women are delaying having children when compared to earlier generations. The next two charts align with this narrative as well.

Chart 4** (below) shows that the birthrate for women in their 30s has increased overall since 2000 (+5.7%), but has declined over the past few years. It also shows the impact that the Great Recession had on the birthrate, but unlike the younger age cohorts, the birthrate bounced back after the economy recovered, at least temporarily.

**Note that we set the lower-bound of the axis to 66 to highlight variation

Finally, Chart 5 (below) again shows how childrearing has fundamentally changed. While there still are not a lot of births to women older than 40, this age cohort has seen the largest percent change since 2000, increasing 25 percent.