The Census Bureau recently released estimates indicating that, between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024, the U.S. population grew by 3.3 million, or just less than 1%. Metropolitan areas[1] as a whole grew at a faster pace, 1.1%, and the 29-county Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)[2] grew even faster, adding about 75k population or a bit less than 1.2%.
Despite significant growth, the Atlanta MSA has dropped back to the #8 spot in the population rankings from #6 last year. Some of this movement is an artifact of changes in Census estimate methodology, so it is worth taking a moment to understand how population change is measured.
Population change is made up of two components: natural change, and net migration.[3] Natural change is simply births minus deaths. Net migration involves the number of people moving in and out of an area, and is broken down into domestic migration– people moving in and out of other parts of the United States– and international migration– people moving between the area of question and other countries.
The Census Bureau has improved its measure of international migration,[4] leading to higher estimates for that component nationwide. As a result of this new method, the Census Bureau has revised up its population estimates for past years. Looking at the Atlanta MSA, for example: the 2023- vintage Population Estimate for 2023 was 6,307,261, while the 2024- vintage population estimate for 2023 is now 6,336,015. That represents a difference of 28,754– about 0.46% higher– under the improved method.
This change, of course, impacts different parts of the country differently. The Washington, DC MSA saw its 2023 estimate increase from 6,304,975 in the 2023 vintage to 6,345,881 in the 2024 vintage. Under the revised estimate, metro Washington actually had a larger population than metro Atlanta did in 2023.
In addition, Metropolitan Miami experienced rapid growth, leapfrogging both Atlanta and Washington, DC in 2024. The change in methodology, coupled with the normal annual population changes, has led to some reshuffling of the top twenty metros– including one new to the list. Figure 1 below depicts how they stack up.
Figure 1: Estimated Population for the Top 20 MSAs in the United States as of July 1, 2024
Figure 1 above reveals that New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, and Dallas remain in the top four from last year. But there is also a newcomer: Orlando has replaced Baltimore in the #20 spot.[5]
Figure 2 below presents estimated change in population between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024 for the top 20 metros:
Figure 2: Population Change for the Top 20 MSAs in the United States, 2023-24
As the above Figure 2 shows, regions among the top 20 metros grew at very different rates. New York, Houston, and Dallas showed the greatest increase year-on-year, while San Diego, Denver, and Detroit brought up the rear. As a group, the California metros (Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, and San Francisco) showed some of the weakest growth, while metros in Florida and Texas were some of the fastest growing. Atlanta was close to the median, ranking #8 in terms of growth.
But perhaps the more interesting story is how population growth breaks down by component (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: Components of Population Change for the Top 20 MSAs in the United States, 2023-24
Figure 3 shows above that births outnumbered deaths for 19 of the 20 top metros. The lone exception is Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. But this graph also indicates that domestic migration was actually net negative in 13 of the top 20 metros over the period in question. In other words, more people moved out of these MSAs to other parts of the country than moved into these metros. Where has the bulk of population growth come from, then? The answer is international migration. People moving into the top 20 metros outnumbered births in 11 of the 20 metros, and net gains from international migration were 20% higher than total births for the top metros taken together.
What does population change look like for counties within metro Atlanta? We’ll take a look at that in an upcoming post.
Notes:
[1] Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are groups of counties delineated by the Office of Management and Budget on the basis of social and economic integration. This integration is measured by commuting patterns, so they are essentially labor markets. An MSA needs to have at least one urban area of minimum 50,000 population. Similarly integrated areas with smaller urban areas (between 10,000 and 49,999 population) are called Micropolitan Statistical Areas (µSAs). The term Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) is used to refer to MSAs and µSAs collectively.
[2] Technically, the Atlanta MSA is called the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area, in recognition of the fact that our region has multiple urban cores.
[3] If you look at the data tables, you will also notice a very small “residual” figure. This represents minor adjustments made to the estimates so that the numbers “roll up” correctly (e.g., county figures should sum to state figures, which in turn should sum to the nationwide total).
[4] For more information on the methodology used for 2024, see https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2020-2024/methods-statement-v2024.pdf.
[5] The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA is another beneficiary of the improved international migration measure. It also ranks #20 in 2023 when using the 2024 vintage estimates.
Access the data utilized for the graphs in this post here: Population Change, Top 20 Metros, 2024 Vintage